The likelihood of an asteroid striking Earth within the next decade has doubled in a matter of weeks, according to NASA astronomers.
The asteroid, discovered just after Christmas and named 2024 YR4, could impact the planet in December 2032 as it completes another journey around its orbit, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
When the asteroid was first detected, NASA estimated the probability of impact at 1.3%. That probability has since increased to 2.1%. While this number may still seem low, experts warn that a 2% chance of impact is “uncommon” for near-Earth objects.
Contents
An Unusual Threat in Space
“Getting something with a probability this high, like 2%, is high for us,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
On the Torino Scale, a system used to categorize the risk of near-Earth objects, 2024 YR4 ranks at 3 out of 10, a rarity considering most detected space rocks score a zero.
The asteroid was first identified in late December during a close approach to Earth but is now moving away. Due to its elongated orbit, it will eventually travel between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter before returning toward Earth.
A Limited Window for Observation
Because of this unusual trajectory, the asteroid will disappear from view starting in April and will remain undetectable until 2028. This presents a challenge for astronomers, who are racing to collect as much data as possible before losing sight of it.
“We don’t want to take any chances,” Farnocchia said.
To refine their calculations, NASA scientists will use the James Webb Space Telescope, the most powerful space observatory ever built. The telescope will not only measure 2024 YR4’s orbit with greater accuracy but also analyze the infrared light it emits. This data will provide a clearer estimate of the asteroid’s size and composition.
Potential Impact and Historical Comparison
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 330 feet in diameter. While this may not be large enough to cause global devastation, it is big enough to cause localized destruction if it were to hit a densely populated area.
For comparison, in 1908, the Tunguska asteroid, believed to have been of a similar size, exploded over Siberia and flattened approximately 1,250 square miles of forest.
Ongoing Monitoring and Next Steps
The global astronomy community is closely monitoring 2024 YR4 and other potential impact threats. Scientists worldwide are using multiple telescopes to track its position in space and refine predictions about its path.
“We are tracking this object every night,” Farnocchia said.
Although a 2% probability of impact remains relatively low, the fact that the risk has doubled in just a few weeks is cause for concern. NASA and other space agencies will continue to collect data and adjust their predictions in the coming years to determine whether Earth is truly at risk.
For the latest updates and detailed coverage on this topic, go to our X page. Stay informed with real-time news and insights.
