The likelihood of an asteroid striking Earth within the next decade has doubled in a matter of weeks, according to NASA astronomers.
The asteroid, discovered just after Christmas and named 2024 YR4, could impact the planet in December 2032 as it completes another journey around its orbit, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
When the asteroid was first detected, NASA estimated the probability of impact at 1.3%. That probability has since increased to 2.1%. While this number may still seem low, experts warn that a 2% chance of impact is “uncommon” for near-Earth objects.
An Unusual Threat in Space
“Getting something with a probability this high, like 2%, is high for us,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
On the Torino Scale, a system used to categorize the risk of near-Earth objects, 2024 YR4 ranks at 3 out of 10, a rarity considering most detected space rocks score a zero.
The asteroid was first identified in late December during a close approach to Earth but is now moving away. Due to its elongated orbit, it will eventually travel between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter before returning toward Earth.
